Friday, March 8, 2013

No more chasing losses - real handicapping right here!

Yeah, yeah, chasing your losses is a bad thing. If you have ever done it you know what I'm talking about. If you haven't - don't start!

It's kind of what I've done the last couple of days, in between bouts of blogging. But I've found that if I take my time, check the handicapping stats, think think think and THEN bet - I'm more likely to at least get SOME of my money back, than if I do my usual "she has a cute name, let's put ten bucks on her!" Which rarely works.

So in that spirit, I've seriously handicapped ONE race today - just one. Race #3 at Santa Anita. It's 6-1/2 furlongs, on turf; so based on the stats and info I've looked at, I'm going to recommend two horses - #2 and #3 - to consider putting money on.

Horse #2 is "Chimi Dee".  She's run on turf before (at a mile) and won; she's also shown steady upward movement in her Beyer's speed figures (from 57 to 73). So she's worth a look.

Horse #3, "Rebelution", is a long shot but here are some reasons I think she might be worth a shot:
  1. her jockey, E. Flores, has won on turf before, 2 times out of 15; which doesn't sound like much but it's way better than the stats on any of the other jockeys in this race;
  2. she did win her one and only race, a mile on turf, and with a pretty good speed figure (64).
Now if you really want a long shot, Horse #11, "Mary Contrary", is now in, because horses #9 and 10 were scratched. Here's a point in her favor: she's being ridden by Brice Blanc, who rode her to both her prior wins.

There you go, folks - some gen-yoo-wine handicapping! Now - which one am I going to bet on?

Hmmm .... let's see what the guys at the Daily News say ...

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