Beyer's speed figures not always accurate?

Here's a great article by Dick Jerardi at the Daily Racing Form about Andy Beyer's speed figures, the ones I've been using for my very basic, beginner's-level handicapping.


Dick Jerardi: Beyer Figures not always based just on final time

Making Beyer Speed Figures is an art/science based on mathematics. That was never more obvious than last Saturday at Fair Grounds when Randy Moss, one of the original fig makers on the Beyer team, was confronted with data that was, at first glance, confusing.

The Mineshaft Handicap, Rachel Alexandra Stakes, and Risen Star were all run at 1 1/16 miles. Exactly 64 minutes separated the off times from the first of those races to the third. Once Randy looked at the entire card, it was clear that the variant was -12 Beyer points or 1.3 seconds at the distance. That means to assess the performance of each horse, 1.3 seconds or 12 points had to be subtracted from the times/raw figures of each race to account for the relative speed of the surface on the day.

The Rachel Alexandra’s time of 1:45.38 equated to a raw figure of 98. Thus, the actual Beyer assigned to the race is 86.

The Risen Star went in 1:44.52, a raw figure of 107. The Beyer is 95.

The Mineshaft’s time was 1:44.82, a raw figure of 104. The assigned figure is 97.

So, how does the slower race at the same distance on the same track run an hour apart get a better Beyer?That is where art, common sense, and pace are factored into the math.

(Read the rest of the article here ).

Still SO much to learn!!!

Happy Monday! Results AND the THREE STOOGES!

OK, so first the results: yesterday I picked #4, Buenos Dias, in Santa Anita's race 4; he came in DEAD LAST. Sorry!

However, I hope this made up for it: at Turf Paradise, I recommended #5, Lord Avalon, in race 6, and he WON!  Good horsie, good horsie!

Now since Santa Anita won't have any more races till Wednesday, I'm going to take a couple of days off.

Let me leave you with this gem from the Three Amigos - er, the Three Stooges: "Playing the Ponies" (1937)! (You'll never order filet of sole from a restaurant again - nyuk nyuk!)

Pick the right track, dingbat!!!

OK, as you may recall, yesterday I recommended you bet on Lady Gila at Turf Paradise (horse #6 in the 2nd race), and Mr Commons at Santa Anita (horse #8, race 9).

Well, first the bad news: Mr. Commons came in 4th, and Lady Gila showed. So if you bet both of them to Place (as I did), you're out four bucks, sorry.

But get this:  like an idiot, I forgot to check which track I was betting, and accidentally bet on Santa Anita’s race 2 instead of Turf Paradise’s!

As it turns out, it wouldn’t have mattered, since horse #6 in that race (“Wednesday”) came in 5th.

However - the GOOD news is that this morning, I heard a tip from a handicapper on the radio (wish I’d gotten his name! I didn’t, sorry!) who recommended the long shot “Clubhouse Ride” in race #10 (the Santa Anita Handicap.

So I bet $2 on him to show - and he placed! At 27 to 1 odds, no less!!

So I bet a total of $6.00, and got back $6.80. Not too shabby! Of course, not QUITE as big a margin of profit as I’d like, but hey, a plus sign always beats a minus, at the end of an otherwise blah race day!

Moral of this story is: the correct name for anyone who thinks they have a "system" to bet the races is: "LOSER!!"

Still - I'll keep tryin'! But I'm going to take today off - it is Sunday after all ... 

(Oh all right, quicher whinin'! Santa Anita race 4, go for #4, Buenos Dias; Turf Paradise race 6, try #5, Lord Avalon. Just because they're each the two with the highest Beyers ratings in their previous races. No other good reason. So there!)

Just two picks for Saturday, 'cause I'm pooped!

Wow, it's been a long day but a nice one. Drove from Reseda to Simi Valley via the scenic Santa Susana Pass, and then kicked it up a notch by continuing up through Santa Paula all the way up to Ojai. All on back roads. All achingly beautiful.

All of which means I didn't have a whole lot of time to spend handicapping races! So I'm only going to pick two races for today: one from Santa Anita, and one from Turf Paradise. Here goes!

At Santa Anita, I'm enthusiastic about "Mr. Commons", horse #8 in Race 9. This is the fKilroe-G1 Purse, one mile on turf. And Mr. Commons not only has a high Beyers speed but has also run - and won - on turf MANY times. So, Mr. Commons - #8 in the 9th.

At Turf Paradise, not a whole lot to get excited about but I think the best pick of the day will be "Lady Gila", horse #6 in Race 2. Her speed has consistently and steadily increased since her 2010 debut; and she’s had multiple wins at this distance. So Lady Gila - #6 in the 2nd.

Those are the only bets I'm gonna put in for tomorrow. Will try to put in more for Sunday.

Thanks for reading this - and good luck!!

Friday's results - 4 out of 4 in the money!

OK, I didn't do TOO bad for my first handicapping try.

Actually did better with Turf Paradise than Santa Anita ... hmmm ... maybe a sign that ... NO!!! I'm NOT moving to Phoenix!! Noooooo!!

Ok, sorry about that! Anyway, here's what happened to the horses I bet on today:

Santa Anita:
Race 2: #2 Candy's Jewel came in 4th.
Race 3: #1 Grand Giant came in 4th; #7 Wild Student came in 7th.
Race 7: #4 Surfcup WON!!!

Turf Paradise:

Race 1: #6 Moon Valley Babe came in 7th.
Race 2: #5 Black Storm Regard WON!
Race 5: #7 Adriatic Moon PLACED!
Race 8: #4 Waronthehomefront PLACED!

So if you were with me, we had 4 out of 4 horses run in the money - not too bad for a first try, eh?

I'll be back tomorrow morning with more picks for Saturday's races!

HAPPY FRIDAY - HERE'S SOME PICKS!

And now - what you’ve all been waiting for: AUNT CHRISSY’S PICKS OF THE DAY!   

Yup, I’m going to give you a buncha horses that I think just might make some $$ today - and I’m going to bet on ‘em too, so as I said yesterday, if you lose, don’t come whining to me because I’ll be feeling pretty bad too.

Note: I refer to the Beyers Speed Figures a lot, so just to save whatever the virtual online equivalent of “trees” would be, let’s abbreviate that “BSF” from this point on, shall we?

Anyway, here goes! Let’s start with a track in my neck of the woods - beautiful SANTA ANITA!

Race 2: Check out #2, CANDY’S JEWEL. Her BSF last time out was 87, and she’s shown a nice steady increase from 61 to 87 in her last several outings.
In race 3, I think #1, GRAND GIANT, will at least be in the money.
For race 7, check out #4, SURFCUP, who’s definitely the fastest horse in this lineup.
(LONGSHOT: #7, WILD STUDENT, in race #3.)

Heading east to TURF PARADISE in beautiful not-yet-scorched-earth-hot Phoenix, Arizona, I’m looking at four races today.

Race #1: I am definitely betting on #6, MOON VALLEY BABE, who had a whopping 106 in her BSF the last time out - that’s just super fast, fastest speed of any horse in ANY race at this track OR Santa Anita today! If she doesn’t at least show I’m gonna be real surprised.
Race #2: Let’s go with #5, BLACK STORM REGARD - shows a lot of potential and very fast at 98 BSF.
Race #5: Not really enthusiastic about the entire field, but #7, ADRIATIC MOON, looks to be the best of the lot.
Race 8: #4, WARONTHEHOMEFRONT, looks pretty good. Not great, but better than the rest of the field.
(LONGSHOT: pretty much every horse in races 3, 4, 6, 7 and 8. Sorry! I’ll come up with something better next time!)

And - to show I have the courage of my convictions - I’ll check in tomorrow with the results and let you know how much I won (or lost)!

(And important P.S. - I'm doing "Place" bets for now - till I get more confidence in my handicapping skills!)

GOOD LUCK!

Welcome to Aunt Chrissy's Racing Green's NEW SITE!

Hi everyone, and welcome to yet another of my never-ending series of started and abandoned blogs!

(Nyuk nyuk! Let's hope this one won't follow THAT path!)

Actually, it may have a better shot at success, because what I'm doing here is converting a very old website (Chrissy's Racing Green), which I created wayyyyyy back in the deep, dark mists of time (2001, to be exact) into a blog.

The main reasons are: (a) after all these years I think I'm finally getting the hang of this handicapping stuff; (b) it's easier than trying to figure out what my old password and email address were every time I want to log in; and (c) I STILL LOVE HORSE RACING YAYYY OMG PONIES!!

Ahem! So, here goes with my brand new blog! I'll still provide WORKING links to all the major race tracks; plus links to great horse racing articles and info all over the Net.

PLUS - at least once a week - I'll share with you my handicapping tips on selected upcoming races! Just for fun, you understand - if you bet on my picks and lose, don't come whining to me, because chances are I lost too and I'm feeling pretty glum.

OK, here goes! Thanks for reading so far - join me tomorrow morning and I'll tell you which horsies I'm betting on at SANTA ANITA and TURF PARADISE!